SpaceX IPO Underwriters Project $190B AI Revenue by 2030, Excluding Rockets
What You Need to Know
- SpaceX filed for IPO targeting $1.75 trillion valuation at $135 per share.
- Morgan Stanley projects SpaceX AI division will reach $190 billion revenue by 2030.
- SpaceX posted $4.9 billion net loss in 2025 despite 33% revenue growth.
- Lead underwriters publishing optimistic projections creates potential conflict of interest in IPO analysis.
SpaceX filed for what would be the largest IPO in history, targeting a $1.75 trillion valuation at $135 per share, while Morgan Stanley projects the company will generate $3.4 trillion in annual revenue by 2040, a 182x increase from the $18.7 billion it recorded in 2025.
The number driving that forecast is not rockets or satellites. Morgan Stanley expects SpaceX’s AI division, which pulled in $3.2 billion last year, to reach nearly $190 billion by 2030, making it the dominant revenue segment ahead of Starlink. Goldman Sachs goes further, projecting the AI unit alone at $322 billion in 2030 revenue with total company revenue at $474 billion. The framing here matters: two of the IPO’s lead underwriters are publishing the most optimistic possible scenarios for the company they are being paid to take public. That is not a conflict of interest anyone is pretending doesn’t exist, but it is worth holding in mind when reading the projections as if they were independent analysis.
SpaceX posted a $4.9 billion net loss in 2025, reversing a $791 million profit the year before, even as revenue grew 33%.
That loss is almost certainly capital expenditure rather than operational failure, given the pace of satellite constellation expansion and AI infrastructure buildout. But it does mean the company going public is burning cash at scale, and the $75 billion raise is partly about funding continued spending, not distributing profits. For retail investors drawn in by the Procure Space ETF’s 137% run over the past twelve months, the distinction between a high-growth infrastructure story and a profitable business matters more than the headline valuation suggests. Elon Musk retaining 82.4% of voting power after the Nasdaq listing further limits what public shareholders actually control, a structure that has become familiar from Tesla and other founder-led listings but that tends to get underweighted in IPO enthusiasm.
SpaceX began investor meetings on Thursday, with Chinese and Hong Kong investors barred from participating, a restriction that signals how entangled the offering already is with the current U.S.-China technology decoupling. The underwriting syndicate includes Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, BofA Securities, JPMorgan, and Citi. At 555.55 million shares offered, the pricing process will be one of the more closely watched in recent memory.
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