Prediction Markets Hit $8.7B Weekly Volume as World Cup Eclipses Election Records

Published by James Harris on June 17, 2026June 17, 2026

Weekly spot volume across prediction market platforms hit $8.7 billion last week, the highest figure ever recorded for the category, as the FIFA World Cup drove a constant churn of fresh contracts across all major platforms. No election cycle, no crypto blowup, no macro event had cleared the previous $7.4 billion record set in February. A month-long soccer tournament did it in the opening seven days.

Kalshi took the majority of that volume, posting $5.1 billion for the week, a platform record and the only individual high set during the period. Polymarket reached $3.0 billion, which matched its own all-time record from the week ending April 12, yet still left it trailing by a widening margin. Sports contracts have been Kalshi’s primary volume driver for months, and the expanded 48-team format has amplified that advantage by producing dozens of sequential markets across a multi-week schedule. The monthly trading volume context here is relevant: the category was already scaling fast before the tournament, which means the World Cup is accelerating a trajectory that was already in motion rather than creating one from scratch.

Polymarket matching its own record while losing ground to a competitor is a useful summary of where it stands right now.

Robinhood’s Quiet Infrastructure Play

Polymarket’s response is a beta launch of parlay-style combo markets for World Cup matches, stacking multiple outcomes into a single position in the way traditional sportsbooks structure multi-leg bets. VP of engineering Josh Stevens confirmed more market types and sports categories are coming over the next few weeks. The product direction is sensible, but Polymarket is trying to out-build its way back into competition against a platform that already owns the sports volume habit among its users.

The more structurally interesting development sits below the headline numbers. Robinhood began routing some of its World Cup contracts through Rothera, the CFTC-regulated exchange it co-owns with Susquehanna, rather than sending flow to Kalshi. Rothera launched June 1, cleared roughly $2 million in its first week, then posted $170.3 million last week, including $109.2 million in a single day according to Dune Analytics data. That is still small against Kalshi’s $5.1 billion, but Robinhood users have historically accounted for close to a quarter of Kalshi’s trading volume. A distribution platform that decides to keep flow in-house is a categorically different competitive threat than another exchange trying to acquire traders individually, and the ramp from $2 million to $170 million in two weeks shows the lever is real.

The World Cup runs through mid-July. How much of Rothera’s trajectory holds after the tournament ends will say more about Robinhood’s long-term intentions than anything from a single record-breaking week.