Kalshi Doubles Valuation to $40B on Regulated Crypto Futures Launch

Published by James Harris on June 25, 2026June 25, 2026

Kalshi is in talks to raise capital at a valuation of roughly $40 billion, according to the Financial Times, nearly doubling the $22 billion figure attached to its Series F just seven weeks ago. That round closed in May with Coatue, Sequoia Capital, Andreessen Horowitz, Morgan Stanley, and ARK Invest participating.

The velocity here is unusual even by bull-market standards, and this is not a bull market, at least not a broad one. Bitcoin is down approximately a third from the start of the year, trading near $60,000, and Bitcoin ETFs have recorded over $3.1 billion in net outflows so far in 2026. Kraken, Consensys, and Ledger have all delayed or shelved IPO plans. Against that backdrop, institutional capital flowing into Kalshi at an accelerating pace signals something specific: investors are not buying crypto exposure, they are buying regulated derivatives infrastructure. Kalshi’s annualized revenue reached $2 billion as of June 2026, nearly three times its November 2025 figure, driven heavily by sports event contracts, with the first week of the FIFA World Cup alone generating $5.1 billion in volume.

The product that could justify a $40 billion number is not sports contracts. It is crypto perpetual futures, which launched June 3 and reached $5.5 billion in volume within their first two weeks, making Kalshi the first CFTC-regulated venue to offer them.

The regulatory picture complicates the valuation math considerably. More than a dozen states have filed suits alleging Kalshi operates unlicensed sports betting, and some industry estimates place sports contracts at up to 90% of the company’s revenue. Kentucky’s attorney general sued on June 17, claiming nearly 89% of Kalshi’s 2025 trading activity was tied to sports betting. Illinois passed a law requiring a state license, prompting Kalshi to file a federal lawsuit asserting CFTC preemption. The CFTC itself has sued nine states to block enforcement actions, with Chairman Michael Selig stating directly: “If you interfere with the operation of federal law in regulating financial markets, we will sue you.” The jurisdictional question is widely expected to reach the Supreme Court, meaning investors committing capital now are explicitly pricing in a favorable outcome they cannot yet confirm.

The Q3 2026 target for closing the round lands before any Supreme Court resolution is plausible, which means the new investors are effectively funding a legal campaign as much as a trading platform. If the federal preemption argument holds, Kalshi’s monthly trading volume of $16.81 billion becomes a floor. If it does not, the $40 billion valuation rests on a product category that may be legally constrained in most of the country.