SpaceX IPO Priced at Double Morningstar’s Fair Value Estimate

Published by James Harris on June 12, 2026June 12, 2026

SpaceX’s public debut at $135 per share values the company at $1.77 trillion, making it the largest IPO on record and pushing Elon Musk past the $1 trillion net worth threshold. The number is genuinely historic. It is also, by at least one serious estimate, roughly twice what the company is actually worth.

Morningstar put SpaceX’s fair value at around $780 billion, meaning investors at the IPO price are paying a premium of more than 100% over a discounted cash flow estimate, for a company that has lost $13 billion since 2023 and reported a $4.9 billion net loss on $18.7 billion in revenue last year. The retail allocation tells part of the story: SpaceX reserved roughly 30% of shares for individual investors, three to six times the typical IPO norm, and demand still exceeded supply. That dynamic is less a sign of fundamental conviction than of years of locked-out retail appetite finally finding an exit. Elizabeth Warren formally asked the SEC to delay the listing over governance concerns, which were ignored, and the dual-class share structure means the 85% voting control Musk retains makes public shareholders observers more than owners.

The December 2026 lockup expiry is the date that will matter more than today’s open.

The S&P 500 inclusion question is already in motion. S&P Dow Jones Indices recently closed a consultation on megacap IPO eligibility without changing its 12-month seasoning rule, which means SPCX cannot enter the index before mid-2026 at the earliest. That matters because index inclusion would force passive funds to buy regardless of valuation, providing a structural bid that does not currently exist. Until then, the price is entirely a function of discretionary demand, and that demand is carrying a significant narrative premium tied to Starlink’s satellite footprint, AI infrastructure ambitions, and an addressable market figure ($28.5 trillion) that the company itself generated.

For crypto markets, the SpaceX IPO is adjacent in one specific way: it pulls discretionary capital and retail attention toward a single high-profile risk asset at a moment when SPCX’s Nasdaq debut competes directly with altcoin season narratives for the same marginal dollar. Large splashy listings have historically preceded short-term softness in speculative assets as liquidity concentrates. Whether that pattern holds here depends on how quickly the post-IPO euphoria either sustains or fades into the lockup overhang that December will bring.